If all its plans go ahead, Whitehaven's coal mines are on track to release more than 60,000 tonnes a year of the potent greenhouse gas by 2030 -- about twice current levels, said the study by Ember, a UK-registered group that uses data analysis to promote clean energy.
"This flies in the face of Australia's climate commitments and asks serious questions about the amount of risk these expansion plans pose," said Ember's climate adviser Chris Wright.
Australia, one of the world's largest coal exporters, has committed to cutting carbon emissions by 43 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels, on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
Whitehaven runs three open-cut and one large underground coal mine in New South Wales, with plans to expand with another open-cut mine in the state. It is also seeking approval for a new open-cut mine in Queensland.
The company, which describes itself as Australia's leading producer of premium quality coal, reported that it had pulled more than 18 million tonnes of coal out of its mines in the year to June 30, 2023.
Expanded Whitehaven coal operations could emit a cumulative 1.2 million tonnes of methane between now and 2050, Ember said, with an equivalent short-term climate impact of 56 million cars on the road for a year.
- 'Underestimated' -
The climate group also cast doubt on Whitehaven's figures after comparing them to methane emissions reported by other Australian mines.
"Emissions reported by Whitehaven fall consistently below what could be reasonably expected. It is likely that they are being significantly underestimated," the report said.
"As far as the authors are aware, the methane emission factors used by Whitehaven have not been independently verified."
The group's only underground coal mine, Narrabri in New South Wales, is required to directly measure methane emissions because it operates below the surface, said Ember.
Since mining started there in 2018, Narrabri had reported methane emissions nearly five times higher than it had estimated before operations began, the think tank said.
Whitehaven said it complies with emissions regulations in New South Wales and Queensland.
"We undertake all emissions estimates in accordance with the approved methodologies outlined by the relevant regulators and authorities in each jurisdiction," a Whitehaven spokesperson said.
The coal group was investing in systems to "enhance the accuracy of our emissions forecasting", the spokesperson said.
Methane is responsible for roughly 30 percent of the global rise in temperatures to date.
While far less abundant in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, methane is about 28 times more powerful than a greenhouse gas on a century-long timescale. Over a 20-year time frame, it is 80 times more potent.
Methane lingers in the atmosphere for only a decade, compared to hundreds or thousands of years for CO2.
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