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OIL AND GAS
Chinese oil metric paints mixed demand picture
by Daniel J. Graeber
Singapore (UPI) Dec 29, 2016


Texas oil survey reveals OPEC pessimism
Houston (UPI) Dec 30, 2016 - Less than half of oil industry survey respondents expect OPEC to make good on its promise to cut production in 2017, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found.

Starting next week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-member parties to an agreement like Russia are expected to cut oil production collectively by about what OPEC economists expect in demand growth next year. The move is meant to balance a market that was influenced by oversupply in early 2016.

A survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found 58 percent of the respondents believe the agreement will not be enforced. That sentiment has been shared by finance analysts and ministers from OPEC member states like Iran.

On when the market will return to balance, less than half of the respondents expected that to happen by the third quarter of 2017.

Crude oil prices have increased steadily since the OPEC agreement was signed in late November and most of those taking part in the bank's survey said they expected oil prices will be higher one year from now.

On sentiments at home, respondents told surveyors they expected spending in exploration and production to increase in 2017. OPEC's strong production position before the November deal contributed to the supply-side strains that brought oil prices below $30 per barrel and sidelined operations in expensive U.S. shale basins. With prices back above $50 per barrel, more shale producers are returning to work and the Dallas Fed found business activity in the No. 1 oil producer in the nation was ripe for expansion.

"The oil and gas sector is entering 2017 on a positive note, as activity continued growing in the fourth quarter and outlooks improved significantly," Dallas Fed senior economist Michael D. Plante said in a statement.

The Texas energy sector continues to face headwinds. A North American division of BP recently relocated from Houston to Denver and the Dallas Fed said that, while the labor market was strong, most respondents reported static payroll numbers.

A metric used to gauge Chinese oil demand was slightly higher than last year, though there are signs economic performance is slowing, an industry report said.

According to economists with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Chinese gross domestic product will average 6.7 percent growth for 2016 and 6.2 percent in 2017. OPEC said the amount of crude oil held in storage in China increased slightly this year as the country diverted more oil into its strategic reserves.

Ratings agencies Moody's and Fitch this month reported the Chinese economy may face headwinds moving into 2017, with the banking sector facing the brunt of the downturn. Government estimates of the Consumer Price Index, which gauges national inflation, came in well below the official target rate of 3 percent.

According to the economists at OPEC, China's economy improved in November, but momentum was slowing when compared with previous months. Oil demand growth, OPEC said, was "solid-to-steady" for one of the world's leading economies.

A review of national data from S&P Global Platts, meanwhile, found China became a net exporter of oil products for the first time in October, with net output coming in at around 4,000 barrels per day.

Nevertheless, implied oil demand -- which measures the amount moving through domestic refineries against net imports -- was 1.1 percent higher year-on-year on October, Platts found.

"This was the first positive year-on-year growth recorded since June," the emailed report read. "This brings overall apparent oil demand over January to October to an average 11.04 million barrels per day, which is a contraction of 1.4 percent from the same time in 2015."

Chinese oil demand may influence dynamics on an oil market that favors the supply side given lackluster growth in the global economy. The International Energy Agency said demand for oil could surpass the level of supplies available on the market at some point during the first half of the year provided members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers honor a production cap starting in January.


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