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OIL AND GAS
Oil continues to rally against analyst warnings
by Daniel J. Graeber
Washington DC (UPI) Oct 03, 2016


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

Threats from the latest storm system in the Atlantic were enough to push a rally in oil prices into another day Tuesday even as supplies elsewhere look to build.

Hurricane Matthew could be a threat to some of the storage capacity in the Bahamas, though most of the production centers in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico are spared from the Category 4 storm making its way toward the eastern coast of Florida. Behind it, a low-pressure system has a chance to evolve into a cyclone within the next 48 hours.

Some production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was disrupted in September by Hurricane Hermine.

The storm was enough to send crude oil prices toward another session of gains, though trends before the start of trading in New York showed the market may be looking for clear direction. The price for Brent crude oil was up 0.6 percent to $51.21 per barrel, its highest level for the year. The price for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for oil, was up 0.3 percent to open the trading day in New York at $49.87 per barrel.

Market fluidity in early Tuesday trading may be a reflection of a market waiting to see industry data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration later this week to get a better indication of supply and demand dynamics after last week's production decision from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Analysis from S&P Global Platts said there may be a "wave of hurdles" for oil to extend the rally much further as its expects EIA data to show an increase of 2 million barrels in U.S oil storage, a contrast to recent weeks.

From OPEC, Platts said it expects Saudi Arabia to move soon to lower its selling price for oil in an effort to defend market share.

"It could be seen as running counter to the takeaway from last Wednesday's OPEC meeting, which saw member nations agreeing to an output cap," Managing Editor James Bambino said in an emailed report.

Last week's announced production target of between 32.5 and 33.0 million barrels per day from OPEC members gave the market confidence that oil wouldn't move below $30 per barrel again, as it did early this year. Analysts, however, note the supply and demand dynamics that pushed oil prices to historic lows this year are still more or less in play.

Swiss oil-market research group Petromatrix said production from OPEC members in October will likely be higher than last month, which was at a new record high at about 32.5 million bpd.


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