SpaceWar.com - Your World At War
How serious are Iran's breaches of the 2015 deal?
Vienna, July 8 (AFP) Jul 08, 2019
Attention is once again focused on how close Iran could be to a nuclear weapon, after Tehran said it had started enriching uranium to a higher level than agreed in a 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by the US.

The move comes a week after it was confirmed that the country has also exceeded the deal's limit on its stockpile of enriched uranium.


- What does higher enrichment mean? -


While Iran has always insisted its nuclear programme is peaceful, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) froze the so-called "breakout time" Tehran would need to produce enough fissile material to make an atomic bomb to one year.

One of the restrictions to achieve this meant that Iran was only permitted to enrich uranium to the level of 3.67 percent -- sufficient for power generation but far below the more than 90-percent level required for a nuclear warhead.

Iran's atomic energy organisation said on July 8 it had gone over the level of 4.5 percent.

Iranian officials have hinted they may go up to five percent, the level needed to produce fuel for Iran's only nuclear power station at Bushehr.

While the differences in percentages may sound small, former IAEA inspector Robert Kelley said that once the 3.67-percent cap was breached, enriching to higher purities becomes much easier because most of the effort is spent at the beginning of the process.

However, he told AFP that in his opinion "increasing from 3.67 percent to five percent is virtual proof they are not working on a bomb".

"It is insignificant... a poke in (US President Donald) Trump's eye."


- What does stockpile limit breach mean? -


On July 1 the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmed that Iran had marginally exceeded the JCPOA's 300-kilogramme (660-pound) stockpile limit of enriched uranium.

However, experts said Iran would need several times this amount before it would be able to even start amassing enough material for a bomb.

"At this point in time it's certainly not a matter of great concern, because there is still time," Olli Heinonen, former IAEA head of safeguards, said of the breach.

However, he cautioned that if Iran continued stockpiling in a year from now it could gather a tonne of the material, slashing the time it would take to produce weapons grade material.

Iran has stressed that all the breaches announced so far could be reversed "in hours" if the other parties to the nuclear deal make good on their side of the bargain, meaning providing relief from sanctions.


- Which moves would cause more alarm? -


Iran has said a "third phase" of reducing its commitments under the JCPOA may take place in the coming months if no agreement can be reached with the other parties.

One direction this could take is an increase in centrifuge installation, particularly of more advanced models such as the IR-2M. More than 1,000 of these were removed from Natanz and put into storage under the JCPOA.

Prior to the deal, Iran had around 20,000 centrifuges of various kinds and amassed some 8,000 kilogrammes of low-enriched uranium.

If the IR-2Ms were redeployed, they could bring the time needed for enriching weapons-grade uranium down to seven months, according to David Albright from the Institute for Science and International Security, a think thank.

However, Kelley said the "breakout" concept is misleading if it only focuses on Iran's stocks of nuclear material.

"You have to go back and say: 'Where are they in the process of (in terms of developing) high explosives, machining'," Kelley said, adding that he believed Iran was currently "deficient" in those areas.

Iran would also have to test and procure various bits of equipment -- activities that should be detectable, Kelley said.

A former French ambassador to Iran, Francois Nicoullaud, pointed out that having only one weapon "would leave Iran vulnerable once it had been tested" and that it would be better to have "at least two or three".

For a nuclear capability of that kind, "the timeframe is undoubtedly three to five years from now," Nicoullaud wrote on his blog.


ADVERTISEMENT




Space News from SpaceDaily.com
AI systems proposed to boost launch cadence reliability and traffic management
China debuts Long March 12A reusable rocket in Jiuquan test flight
Curiosity Blog, Sols 4750-4762: See You on the Other Side of the Sun

24/7 Energy News Coverage
Redesigned carbon framework boosts battery safety and power
Molecular catalyst switches between hydrogen and oxygen production
Project Pele microreactor reaches key milestone with first TRISO fuel delivery

Military Space News, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense
SDA expands Tracking Layer satellite awards and related missile defense contracts
Space Systems Command activates System Delta 80 for assured space access
Rheinmetall ICEYE Space Solutions to provide SAR reconnaissance data to German military

24/7 News Coverage
OPERA satellite data sharpens US crop and water management
Alen Space begins SATMAR satellite validation over Bay of Algeciras
Deep Arctic gas hydrate mounds host ultra deep cold seep ecosystem



All rights reserved. Copyright Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.