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NATO gets a new chief - but don't expect a revolution
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NATO gets a new chief - but don't expect a revolution
By Max DELANY
Brussels, Belgium (AFP) Sept 30, 2024

Incoming NATO chief Mark Rutte brings new leadership this week to one of the world's most powerful-sounding roles -- helming the nuclear-armed Atlantic alliance.

But even if the former Dutch prime minister wanted to shake things up after taking over from Jens Stoltenberg, he probably couldn't.

The reality of the NATO job means Rutte will be heading a risk-averse civilian bureaucracy, with hard power ultimately residing with member countries and above all the United States.

And in many ways NATO's 32 nations -- by swapping one mild-mannered, middle-aged, northern European male ex-premier for another -- have opted for more of the same, to steer the alliance in troubled times.

"In such a difficult geopolitical situation, keeping continuation and the same foreign policy and security line is very important," a senior NATO diplomat told AFP, talking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

During his more than 10 years at the helm, Stoltenberg won plaudits for his calm stewardship of the sometimes fractious alliance.

The Norwegian helped keep then US president Donald Trump on board, threw his weight behind Ukraine while making sure NATO didn't get dragged into war with Russia, and kicked off an overhaul of the alliance's defences to face Moscow.

"Allies were looking for somebody who has many of the same qualities as Stoltenberg and will continue in the same direction: prime minister, well-connected, long experience, good address book, has handled Trump," said Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official now with the Chatham House think tank.

Rutte, a favourite of key powers the US, Britain, France and Germany, ticked all those boxes.

A veteran who led complex coalitions in the Netherlands for 13 years, he has ample experience that can be put to use keeping countries with disparate -- and often competing -- interests on the same page.

"He is a consensus builder with an unflinching commitment to the transatlantic alliance," a senior US official said.

The Dutchman has been a stalwart backer of Kyiv and wasn't afraid to talk frankly to Trump, who could make a comeback after elections in November.

- Consensus straitjacket? -

Similarities aside, diplomats say the straight-talking Rutte should bring a breath of fresh air to the alliance after Stoltenberg's long tenure.

But Rutte would likely struggle to get through major changes.

While the job of running the alliance sounds like a potent role, the secretary general actually only heads the civilian bureaucracy of some 1,500 staff.

Military power rests with the member countries -- mainly in the hands of an American general as Supreme Allied Commander in Europe.

The NATO head often serves more as a spokesperson-in-chief for the organisation, with Stoltenberg known for carefully parsing the position he could stake out.

All decisions at NATO need to be agreed by each member and the person at the top is constrained by how far allies -- and particularly Washington -- are willing to go.

The direction for the next year was set at the last summit in Washington in July.

"NATO is a consensus organisation. Everything, absolutely everything, from the most mundane to the most strategic, is decided by consensus," said Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund think tank.

"So the scope for individual secretary generals to reshape what NATO does and how it does it is obviously very limited."

That said, Rutte does have some levers at his disposal to try to drive through priorities.

"The secretary general can be instrumental in bringing issues to the agenda for discussion," Lesser said.

"That's actually a big role."

Stoltenberg used his pulpit to press allies on supporting Ukraine, paying more attention to the impact of climate change or strengthening ties with partners in Asia-Pacific.

Diplomats say one area where Rutte could push is trying to improve coordination between the European Union and NATO -- long hamstrung by alliance member Turkey's standoff with Cyprus.

But Rutte's main chance to shape the office will likely come if the political situation gets stormier -- with Trump's return to office or a major change in Ukraine.

Then he'll need all his diplomatic guile -- and lengthy contact list -- to keep the ears and commitment of NATO's diverse leaders.

"The skill and personality of a secretary general can make a difference, especially under conditions when the alliance is being tested," Lesser said.

Rutte takes reins at NATO as US vote looms
Brussels, Belgium (AFP) Oct 1, 2024 - Former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte takes over as NATO's secretary general on Tuesday as the Western military alliance reaches a critical juncture weeks from a momentous US election.

The straight-talking 57-year-old replaces Jens Stoltenberg, whose decade at the helm has seen NATO grapple with Russia's war on Ukraine, China's rising might -- and Donald Trump's first term in power in Washington.

The two veteran politicians will lay a wreath at NATO's Brussels headquarters to soldiers fallen during the alliance's 75-year history, before a ceremonial Icelandic gavel is used to mark the official handover.

In opting for Rutte, a staunch US ally and stalwart backer of Ukraine, NATO's 32 nations have picked a leader expected to keep pushing support for Kyiv and efforts to bolster the alliance's own defences in the face of Russia.

"There might be nuances, changes of emphasis possibly -- but there's going to be a lot of continuity as well," a senior NATO diplomat told AFP.

- 'Whoever is on the dance floor' -

The November 5 vote in the United States represents the first major test for Rutte, and will shape his initial four-year term at the helm.

On the campaign trail, Trump has threatened not to protect NATO members who do not spend enough on defence and promised he can cut a quick deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

Rutte -- known for his astute handling of Trump -- has told fretful European countries to stop "whining" about a potential comeback for the volatile reality TV star.

"We have to work with whoever is on the dance floor," he said in February.

But the uncertainty over future Western support for Ukraine comes as Russian forces advance on the battlefield more than three-and-a-half years after the Kremlin's all-out invasion.

NATO, whose members have supplied 99 percent of all foreign weaponry to Ukraine, agreed at a summit in July to play a bigger role in delivering those arms and Rutte will be key in stewarding support.

- 'A big family' -

Another central task for Rutte will be to keep pushing NATO members to spend more on their militaries to counter any potential menace from Moscow.

Spurred on by the war in Ukraine -- and pressure from Washington -- European countries have already ratcheted up their defence spending.

This year, 23 countries are set to reach NATO's target of spending two percent of gross domestic product on their militaries.

But with the threat from Russia expected to last for years -- whatever the outcome in Ukraine -- there is a clear understanding that more will be needed.

That could prove a tough sell for Rutte -- who only saw the Netherlands reach the goal in his fourteenth, and final year, in office.

Even if he wanted to change NATO's direction, Rutte would likely struggle to shake up an alliance based on careful consensus between its members.

Stoltenberg, whose mandate was extended three times, trod a careful balancing act as NATO emerged reenergized in the face of Russia's aggression.

And the former Norwegian premier has told his successor that the greatest challenge he faces is keeping all of NATO's sometimes truculent leaders on the same page.

"That's a big family, a great family, but sometimes what is a challenge, to keep them all happy at the same time," Stoltenberg said in his final speech.

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