Putin rachets up nuclear rhetoric, but is he ready to act?

Putin rachets up nuclear rhetoric, but is he ready to act?
By Anna Smolchenko and Didier Lauras
Paris (AFP) Sept 26, 2024

Vladimir Putin's proposed revision of Russian nuclear policy signals a worrying readiness to use the ultimate weapon against Ukraine and even NATO members, but it remains far from certain the threat will be translated into action, analysts say.

The proposed broadening of Russia's nuclear rules comes as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine stretches into its third year and Kyiv seeks permission from Western allies to use long-range weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia.

With the ramped-up rhetoric Putin is looking to dissuade Western countries from broadening support for Kyiv.

But with repeated threats, he is also putting himself under pressure to act on the use of nuclear weapons, not only against Ukraine but also its NATO backers.

Maxim Starchak, a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University in Canada, said that with the revision of the doctrine, Putin wanted to lower the threshold for use of nuclear weapons.

"Putin counts on the introduction of an additional -- nuclear -- factor in the Ukraine war. He believes and hopes that this will work," Starchak said.

A senior European military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Putin had a limited range of options two and a half years into the war.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, "Putin went all-in. He therefore has little capacity for escalation," the official said.

He outlined three options at Putin's disposal: the use of nuclear rhetoric, the use of nuclear weapons, and hybrid warfare against the West.

- 'Western nuclear response' -

Since the invasion Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons, which the West has dismissed as sabre rattling.

But on Wednesday he went further, announcing changes to the country's nuclear doctrine during a televised meeting of the Kremlin's Security Council.

The updated doctrine would allow the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states when they are supported by nuclear powers -- a clear reference to Ukraine and its Western backers.

The new rules would also allow Russia to unleash a nuclear response in the event of a "massive" air attack, he said.

For Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Putin's threats still rang hollow.

"Russia is frantically looking for ways to make the world afraid of Russian nuclear weapons again," he said.

Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said: "While the Ukrainian retaliation strikes into Russia are causing serious damage, a Russian nuclear response could lead to far greater damage if it triggered a Western nuclear response."

The European Union on Thursday denounced Putin's latest move as "reckless and irresponsible", and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the Russian leader "totally irresponsible".

- 'Questions from people' -

In Moscow, Alexander Khramchikhin, a Russian military analyst, said he did not see "any fundamental changes" to the doctrine, and its wording remains intentionally vague.

What mattered, he said, was the message the Kremlin was sending after Ukraine repeatedly crossed Moscow's "red lines", with its cross-border offensive in the western region of Kursk and the massive use of drones against targets deep inside Russia.

He noted that Putin was coming under increasing pressure from the military, politicians and public opinion at home to use nuclear weapons to win the Ukraine war.

"I am now constantly hearing questions from ordinary people who are asking why we are still not using nuclear weapons," Khramchikhin said.

Since the start of the war, Russian propaganda has gone into overdrive, threatening nuclear retaliation even against Western capitals.

Sergei Karaganov, a high-profile political scientist known for his hawkish views, has urged Putin to use limited nuclear strikes to "save" human civilisation.

Thirty-four percent of Russians consider the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine to be justified, according to a poll by the Levada Centre released in July.

"Well-articulated direct military threats against NATO are the most effective way to communicate," said Vasily Kashin, a Russia-based political scientist. "But at the same time we must be ready to act on these threats."

"We may see limited strikes against facilities in Eastern Europe," Kashin said. "It could lead to a nuclear escalation. A protracted conflict is a dangerous situation."

EU rejects Putin's 'reckless' nuclear weapon threat
Brussels, Belgium (AFP) Sept 26, 2024 - The European Union on Thursday rejected as "reckless and irresponsible" a plan by President Vladimir Putin to authorise a nuclear response to a massive air attack on Russia.

Putin on Wednesday announced an updated nuclear doctrine that would allow the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states when they are supported by nuclear powers -- a clear reference to Ukraine and its Western backers.

"Not for the first time, Putin is playing (a) gamble with his nuclear arsenal," EU foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano told reporters. "We of course strongly reject these threats."

The proposed broadening of Russia's nuclear rules, which Putin himself has the power to approve, comes as Ukraine seeks permission from Western allies to use long-range weaponry to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Kyiv says it is necessary to target Russia's airfields and military infrastructure that it uses to launch attacks on Ukraine. The United States and other western countries are cautious about enabling further escalation.

Earlier on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the planned changes should be seen as a "specific signal" to the West.

Western powers have accused Putin of dangerous nuclear sabre-rattling throughout the Ukraine conflict. The Kremlin leader has issued multiple apparent threats about Moscow's willingness to deploy nuclear weapons.

"This is just the continuation of the very irresponsible and unacceptable behaviour on the side of Putin," the EU's Stano said of the latest threat, which came as many world leaders attended the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Putin's stance was all the more "reckless," Stano said, coming from the leader of a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Kremlin says new nuclear doctrine is 'warning' to West
Moscow (AFP) Sept 26, 2024 - The Kremlin said Thursday that an updated nuclear doctrine that will allow Moscow to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states should be seen as a warning to the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday announced plans to broaden Russia's rules on the use of its nuclear weaponry, allowing it to unleash a nuclear response in the event of a "massive" air attack.

The proposals would also permit Moscow to respond with nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states if they are supported by nuclear powers -- a clear reference to Ukraine and its Western backers.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the planned changes "must be considered a specific signal".

"A signal that warns these countries of the consequences if they participate in an attack on our country by various means, not necessarily nuclear," Peskov told reporters.

Without mentioning Ukraine by name, Peskov said Russia's "nuclear deterrence is being adjusted on account of elements of tension that are developing along the perimeter of our borders".

He also said there was "no question" of Russia boosting its nuclear arsenal.

Moscow residents on Thursday told AFP they were worried by the announcement.

"Using the threat of nuclear weapons is always bad. We don't need another Cuban missile crisis," said Dimitri, a 21-year-old student who declined to give his surname.

Vadim, a 43-year-old artist who also only gave his first name, said: "An escalation is underway, of course, it is alarming."

For others, like 60-year-old pensioner Vladimir, the new doctrine could be beneficial and "bring pretentious Europeans to reason".

The move "can reinforce security and force people in Ukraine and the United States to think", said Igor Diakov, also a retiree in Moscow.

"Europe will tremble because all the red lines have been crossed and they think they cannot be punished for it. But we won't let them get away with it."

Tatiana Nikiforova, a 49-year-old Russian teacher, deferred to her country's leadership.

"We must have faith in our leaders, there is no other way," she said.

The proposed changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, which Putin himself has the power to approve, come as Ukraine is seeking permission from Western allies to use long-range precision weaponry to strike targets deep inside Russia -- so far to no avail.

Kyiv says it is necessary to target Russia's airfields and military infrastructure that it uses to launch attacks on Ukraine, though the White House is cautious about enabling further escalation.

The West has accused Putin of irresponsible nuclear sabre-rattling throughout the Ukraine conflict, with the Kremlin leader having issued multiple apparent threats about Moscow's willingness to deploy its nuclear weapons.