The study, conducted by scientists from UEA and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), highlights the shifting influence of the ozone hole and GHG emissions on the ocean carbon sink surrounding Antarctica. While the ozone hole's role is set to decline as it heals, GHG emissions are expected to become the dominant factor affecting the Southern Ocean's carbon absorption.
The Southern Ocean, despite its relatively small size, absorbs a substantial amount of atmospheric carbon, significantly mitigating human-driven climate change by reducing carbon's radiative effects. Understanding the mechanisms controlling this carbon uptake is crucial for predicting future climate dynamics.
Lead author Dr. Tereza Jarnikova, from UEA's Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, noted, "An interesting, and hopeful, highlight of this work is that the effects of human-caused ozone hole damage on the winds, circulation, and carbon uptake of the Southern Ocean are reversible, but only under a lower scenario of greenhouse gas emissions."
The research found that in past decades, stratospheric ozone loss intensified winds over the Southern Ocean, bringing carbon-rich waters to the surface, which reduced the region's carbon absorption capacity. However, as the ozone layer recovers, this effect is expected to reverse, potentially enhancing the ocean's carbon uptake if emissions are kept in check.
The team utilized the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) to simulate the impact of three different ozone scenarios from 1950 to 2100: one where the ozone hole never appeared, another reflecting real-world recovery following the 1987 Montreal Protocol, and a scenario where the ozone hole remained at its 1987 extent throughout the 21st century. These simulations also included high and low GHG emission projections, allowing researchers to assess the relative influence of ozone recovery versus rising emissions on ocean circulation and carbon uptake.
The study underscores that, in the future, the impact of ocean circulation on carbon uptake may diminish as the deep ocean's carbon distribution shifts, further complicating efforts to predict the Southern Ocean's role in regulating atmospheric carbon.
Research Report:Decreasing importance of carbon-climate feedbacks in the Southern Ocean in a warming climate
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