The research, led by Rapa Nui scientist Noah Paoa, highlights the impact of climate change on the island's cultural and tourism heritage.
Indigenous Polynesian inhabitants have long called the island Rapa Nui, while European explorers named it Easter Island after arriving on Easter Sunday in 1722. It is about 2,200 miles of mainland Chile and is a special territory of that nation.
Projections show that seasonal swells, intensified by global warming, could reach ceremonial platforms, petroglyphs and burial sites. The study, published in the September-October edition of the Journal of Cultural Heritage, poses an urgent question: how to protect the remains of an ancient civilization from a threat advancing inch by inch?
Rapa Nui's coast, designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1995, faces a risk that is no longer hypothetical. According to the study, waves driven by rising seas could reach Ahu Tongariki -- the largest restored group of moai statues on the island -- in less than 60 years.
The research team used computer models to simulate future climate scenarios. By overlaying those projections onto geospatial maps of cultural sites, members identified the most vulnerable areas. The result: 51 archaeological sites at risk of flooding, including stone gardens, burial sites, petroglyphs and traditional homes.
"These places are not just ancient stones. They are living spaces, essential to the cultural identity of Rapa Nui and to the economic livelihood of its people," Paoa told local media.
By May 2023, the Rapa Nui municipal government already had raised the alarm. A report by Chilean researchers from the Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones in Coquimbo, the Esmoi Center and the Catholic University of the North warned of declining rainfall, more extreme weather events, stronger winds, rising sea surface temperatures and falling ocean oxygen levels.
Another technical report from Chile's Ministry of the Environment identified Rapa Nui as one of the country's most climate-vulnerable areas.
"The available options are to build breakwaters, reinforce platforms or relocate statues," Rapa Nui archaeologist Ramon Tuki said. All of these involve technical, ethical and financial challenges, similar to those faced when Ahu Tongariki was repaired -- a process that took about four years."
Ahu Tongariki is the largest ceremonial platform on Easter Island, with 15 restored moai statues. It's on the southeastern coast, near the Rano Raraku quarry, at which most moai were carved. The statues were toppled during tribal conflicts and later swept inland by a 1960 tsunami, but were restored in the 1990s.
On average, a Rapa Nui moai weighs between 10 and 20 tons, and most were carved from volcanic tuff in the Rano Raraku crater. Any effort to move them would require complex, large-scale engineering.
"As serious as the threat of what will happen in the coming years is the fact that there is still no clarity on what will be done," the archaeologist said.
Construction of the moai on Rapa Nui began around the 13th century, though recent studies have refined that timeline. According to archaeological research published in the Journal of Archaeological Science by experts from Binghamton University and the University of Oregon, the first ahu were built shortly after the island's initial settlement, around 1200 A.D.
The threat endangers not only tourism, the island's main source of income, but also the spiritual bond between the people of Rapa Nui and their ancestors. The erosion of the ceremonial landscape could mean an irreparable loss for the cultural memory of the South Pacific.
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