Researchers estimate commercial drone production could scale by up to 10 times by the late 2030s, while output of humanoid and quadruped robots could rise by as much as 100 times over the same period. The study, led by chemical engineer Anthony Ku of Princeton University, benchmarks the raw material demand generated by those production volumes against 2024 US and global consumption data for 18 materials used in motors, energy storage, electronics, and structural frames.
The analysis modeled two scenarios: annual production of 1 million units and 10 million units of drones or robots. For most of the 18 materials examined, neither scenario created an unmanageable burden on supply chains. Several materials, however, emerged as meaningful risks that targeted planning could address.
The largest single risk identified in both scenarios is neodymium-praseodymium, or NdPr, a rare earth element used in the permanent magnets that drive most drone and robot motors. Large humanoid robots require particularly powerful motors and therefore consume more NdPr per unit. The team estimated that manufacturing 1 million large robots per year could increase US NdPr demand by 20 percent above 2024 consumption levels. The researchers note that the US government is already pursuing efforts to reduce offshore dependence on magnet material supply chains, including NdPr.
Carbon fiber and magnesium, both used to build lightweight structural frames, were identified as additional pressure points globally and within the United States. The researchers noted that aluminum exists as a cheaper and more abundant substitute, meaning supply stress for those materials would only materialize in a high-end demand scenario where lightweight performance is prioritized at scale.
"Despite our findings that supply chain risks look to be manageable, there is no room for complacency given the critical role these materials play in digital technologies, decarbonization, and defense," said coauthor Chris Greig, a chemical engineer at Princeton University. "In a world increasingly marked by geopolitical shocks, unforeseen disruptions could be very consequential."
To get ahead of those risks, the researchers outline three strategies. The first is supply chain integration with established industries. Drone and robot manufacturers rely on many of the same materials as electric vehicle and consumer electronics producers, and the authors argue that newcomers to large-scale manufacturing should deliberately connect to existing procurement and logistics capacity. Ku pointed to Tesla's humanoid robot program as an example of a company already moving in that direction.
The second recommendation is design for end-of-life material recovery. Drones typically have a service life of three to five years, and humanoid robots of five to ten years -- significantly shorter than the 20-plus year lifespan of wind turbines that also rely on rare earth magnets. That shorter cycle, the researchers argue, creates a realistic window for material recovery and recycling if manufacturers build disassembly and separation into their designs from the outset rather than retrofitting recycling processes later. "With robots and drones, we're still at the early stages of growth, so there's a window of opportunity to design these technologies so that they're easy to take apart for recycling," Ku said.
The third recommendation centers on cross-sector technical dialogue. The authors call for earlier and more structured conversations between engineers working at different points in the development chain -- from materials science through system integration -- so that substitute materials and design workarounds can be identified and validated before a specific input becomes unavailable. Ku noted that early coordination gives developers "extra flexibility down the road" when substitution decisions must be made quickly under supply pressure.
The research was funded by the Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment at Princeton University.
Research Report: Managing critical-material risks for drones and robotics
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